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Religious Right is Ecstatic about Palin --UPDATED | 8 comments (8 topical, 0 hidden)
Palin (5.00 / 3)
While I believe this will be the excuse Dobson uses to finally endorse McCain (something he would have done anyway, as I long predicted) I am not sure it's as much of a slam dunk as Viguere believes.

She is so inexperienced that she may well give even fundamentalists pause for thought.  While they may be ecstatic over her anti-choice credentials, many will be sensible enough to have grave concerns over her ability to lead the country from day one.  Just ask them to think what would happen if McCain was incapacitated in his first month in office.

Second, if the Democrats play this right, they should be able to frame this as the Republican's stepping away from any possible compromise on reproductive rights (not that there was one anyway).  After the Dems have leaned over backwards to accommodate evangelicals, McCain has thumbed his nose at the moderates by picking Palin.  

Of course, such framing has been a big problem in the past, so it remains to be seen if the Obama campaign can be any different.

Palin probably turns this from a cake walk for Obama into a tighter race, but evangelicals still have to put a check mark against the name "McCain" and I'm betting the euphoria over Palin will be shortlived.


by tacitus on Sat Aug 30, 2008 at 12:39:14 PM EST

you may be right (5.00 / 3)
Palin is risky choice in a lot of ways that even the cable news pundits clearly see.

But this campaign is going to be more about the litmust test issues of the religious right than anyone thought possible. Rick Warren completely sandbagged the liberals who thought he would act like the new moderate evangelical he was billed as -- wrong!  He dwelled on abortion ("holocaust") and same sex marriage and never got around to climate change and AIDS.

I predict that Palin's Down's Syndrome baby will be one of the most famous people in America before this is over. In a truly perverse way, that child will be the standin for Terri Schiavo as an animating issue for the religious right; a narrative that embodies so much of what they say that they are about; and what they say Obama is about, like Pavone says, above.

by Frederick Clarkson on Sat Aug 30, 2008 at 02:32:40 PM EST
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Wait and See (5.00 / 3)
Yeah, it's all just speculation for now.  There is already more stuff coming out about Palin, especially from Alaskan press and fellow politician (some Republican) who are somewhat stunned that she was chosen and are not all that complimentary in their comments.

It will probably take another three weeks (the Republican convention -- with Gustav in tow) and two more weeks to see where this shakes down.  

I know the PUMAs are happy, but they were going to vote for McCain anyway since they were not swayed by Clinton's words.  Palin just gives them a better excuse to vote against their hero's wishes. (Ironically, electing McCain now probably lessens Clinton's chances of being elected in 2012, but the PUMAs are too far gone to understand that).

So, my bet is that in three weeks, the poll will be about where they were before the conventions -- Obama up by about 2 points.  A superior ground game will be the best chance for Obama to win this election as it has been all along.

by tacitus on Sat Aug 30, 2008 at 02:56:56 PM EST
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Religious Right is Ecstatic about Palin --UPDATED | 8 comments (8 topical, 0 hidden)

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