[ excerpt from D'Amatos' full paper. follow link in top paragraph for PDF of study ]

Today's headlines are shouting RAPE IN DECLINE! Official figures just released show a plunge in the number of rapes per capita in the United States since the 1970s. Even when measured in different ways, including police reports and survey interviews, the results are in agreement: there has been an 85% reduction in sexual violence in the past 25 years. The decline, steeper than the stock market crash that led to the Great Depression, is depicted in this chart prepared by the United States Department of Justice:

[ chart source : U.S. Department of Justice · Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey.]

The National Crime Victimization Survey includes both attempted and completed rapes. As the chart shows, there were 2.7 rapes for every 1,000 people in 1980; by 2004, the same survey found the rate had decreased to 0.4 per 1000 people, a decline of 85%. Official explanations for the unexpected decline include

(a) less lawlessness associated with crack cocaine;

(b) women have been taught to avoid unsafe situations;

(c) more would-be rapists already in prison for other   crimes;

(d) sex education classes telling boys that "no means no."

But these minor factors cannot begin to explain such a sharp decline in the incidence of rape. There is, however, one social factor that correlates almost exactly with the rape statitistics. The American public is probably not ready to believe it. My theory is that the sharp rise in access to pornography accounts for the decline in rape. The correlation is inverse: the more pornography, the less rape. It is like the inverse correlation: the more police officers on the street, the less crime.

It has been a decades long staple of Christian right claims that pornography, as a part of a trend depicted as rampant immorality, has been connected with an alleged crime wave.

In fact, national rates of murder and violent assault have dropped dramatically since the early 1980's, divorce has been dropping since the mid 1980's and rape has been dropping - it seems - since the early 1970's.

As with many of the Christian right's factual claims, the best operant practice is : take the claim and reverse it 180 degrees and you'll likely arrive at the empirically demonstrable truth.

A few months ago, I released preliminary findings from a study I've been doing on the alleged claims by the Christian right that same sex marriage would harm the family.

The truth ? - Well, after 2 years of same asex marriage in Massachusetts the Bay State's divorce rate has dropped 8-10% in that period and the stately likely retains its title as the US state with the lowest divorce rate. ( see: Christian Right Wrong On Gay Marriage In Massachusetts

However, most of the handful of US states with divorce rates that rose significantly in the same period were states that have passed state constititutional bans on same sex marriage : the Oklahoma divorce rate was up over 15%, Utah around 5%, and Alaska a whopping 35%.

Go figure.

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