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New Rape Statistics Challenge Christian Right Claims On Pornography/Rape Link
By Bruce WilsonThu Aug 24, 2006 at 02:34:25 PM EST
topic: All Topics section:Diary printable version print this story
Thanks to Ed Brayton, author of Dispatches From The Culture Wars for this tasty catch of the day :

Anthony D'Amato of the Northwestern University School of Law has a new paper available at SSRN that compares the statistics for the last 35 years on access to pornography and the incidence of rape. The religious right likes to argue that pornography increases rape, but the statistics certainly do not bear that out. The correlation actually cuts strongly the other way. As D'Amato points out, rape has decreased by 85% since 1970, while pornography has become vastly more available and more popular. That doesn't prove causation, of course, though there are hypotheses that make such an argument. But at the very least, it makes it very difficult for advocates of a link to explain away that clear correlation.
Here's the core of researcher D'Amato's paper on the striking decline in rape incidence from '73 to 2003 in the US that has occured despite the explosion in the availability of pornography :

[ excerpt from D'Amatos' full paper. follow link in top paragraph for PDF of study ]

Today's headlines are shouting RAPE IN DECLINE! Official figures just released show a plunge in the number of rapes per capita in the United States since the 1970s. Even when measured in different ways, including police reports and survey interviews, the results are in agreement: there has been an 85% reduction in sexual violence in the past 25 years. The decline, steeper than the stock market crash that led to the Great Depression, is depicted in this chart prepared by the United States Department of Justice:

[ chart source : U.S. Department of Justice · Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey.]

The National Crime Victimization Survey includes both attempted and completed rapes. As the chart shows, there were 2.7 rapes for every 1,000 people in 1980; by 2004, the same survey found the rate had decreased to 0.4 per 1000 people, a decline of 85%. Official explanations for the unexpected decline include

(a) less lawlessness associated with crack cocaine;

(b) women have been taught to avoid unsafe situations;

(c) more would-be rapists already in prison for other   crimes;

(d) sex education classes telling boys that "no means no."

But these minor factors cannot begin to explain such a sharp decline in the incidence of rape. There is, however, one social factor that correlates almost exactly with the rape statitistics. The American public is probably not ready to believe it. My theory is that the sharp rise in access to pornography accounts for the decline in rape. The correlation is inverse: the more pornography, the less rape. It is like the inverse correlation: the more police officers on the street, the less crime.

It has been a decades long staple of Christian right claims that pornography, as a part of a trend depicted as rampant immorality, has been connected with an alleged crime wave.

In fact, national rates of murder and violent assault have dropped dramatically since the early 1980's, divorce has been dropping since the mid 1980's and rape has been dropping - it seems - since the early 1970's.

As with many of the Christian right's factual claims, the best operant practice is : take the claim and reverse it 180 degrees and you'll likely arrive at the empirically demonstrable truth.

A few months ago, I released preliminary findings from a study I've been doing on the alleged claims by the Christian right that same sex marriage would harm the family.

The truth ? - Well, after 2 years of same asex marriage in Massachusetts the Bay State's divorce rate has dropped 8-10% in that period and the stately likely retains its title as the US state with the lowest divorce rate. ( see: Christian Right Wrong On Gay Marriage In Massachusetts

However, most of the handful of US states with divorce rates that rose significantly in the same period were states that have passed state constititutional bans on same sex marriage : the Oklahoma divorce rate was up over 15%, Utah around 5%, and Alaska a whopping 35%.

Go figure.




Display:
Right now, it can only be inferred that there MAY be a link between the two- even if the correlation value is very high.  I would recommend research comparing those areas with easy access to porn vs those areas where it is outlawed or difficult to get.

This would provide a better analysis- especially if it was done as a multivariate analysis incorporating the different ideas suggested to be behind the reduction in rapes.  This would help to isolate the single (or multiple) causes of the reduction...  and I could think of a few other factors that should be considered as well- such as changing cultural ideas about sex and rape.

I am thankful that the rapes incidences have reduced in frequency!!!  I must also say, however, that I consider porn to be in some ways a form of rape- at least a form of demeaning discrimination against women.

by ArchaeoBob on Thu Aug 24, 2006 at 10:14:56 PM EST

Between the rise in availability of pornography and the decrease in rape, but at least these new findings cast doubt on Christian right claims - including claims, for that matter, that there is some measureable increase in societal "immorality" ( depending, of course, on how one defines and seeks to measure immorality ) .

However, U.S. national rates of rape, divorce, murder, and violent crime have been dropping for close to two decades now.

by Bruce Wilson on Fri Aug 25, 2006 at 12:33:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Bruce, you're absolutely right about the "christian right" claims.  I would like to see someone do the research that would help to identify what is the real cause of the decrease.

by ArchaeoBob on Fri Aug 25, 2006 at 10:18:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll be writing on those if I can ever get some free time away from the website coding & debugging slave galley....

by Bruce Wilson on Tue Aug 29, 2006 at 12:38:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]




Other factors that could also account for this are the increased availabilityof birth control (especially the pill) and the associated "women's lib" movement.

Both of these make it more likely that a date will say "yes" instead of "no". The condemnation of pre-marital sex has also decreased as can be seen from the number of TV shows which portray this type of relationship (including one night stands).

More partner availability means less frustration which means less rape. Women also don't think it is as necessary to be a virgin when they marry.
-- Policies not Politics
by rdf on Fri Aug 25, 2006 at 03:53:21 PM EST

The "Male Satisfaction Hypothesis" ?

by Bruce Wilson on Fri Aug 25, 2006 at 04:46:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Someone recently noted a correlation between how sexually repressive a society is and the number of "terrorist" groups.

So sexual frustration may also be expressed in other forms of violence besides rape.
-- Policies not Politics
by rdf on Fri Aug 25, 2006 at 06:45:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I call it the ketchup packet theory.  
The more oppressive the society, the greater the push up in another area.  
For example, the area of the US that buys the most porn?  Utah.
The area of the world that buys the most porn?  The Middle East.


by nofundy on Tue Aug 29, 2006 at 10:43:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Do you have any ready links ?

Utah.... hmm.....

by Bruce Wilson on Tue Aug 29, 2006 at 12:39:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]






Isn't porn used for wanking?

Unless wanking is considered self-rape (Catholic Onanism, etc) then the physical release would seem to obivate the need for rape to occur.  Of course, this may not apply to deviants who also commit other acts of violence or are attracted to perverse acts as masturbation would not fulfill their sexually related cravings.

by nofundy on Tue Aug 29, 2006 at 10:47:47 AM EST

Then again, who mentioned common sense ?

;)

by Bruce Wilson on Tue Aug 29, 2006 at 12:40:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]



I like your liberal ideas, but what about the fact that we now have over 2,000,000 behind bars, and another 5M on parole or probation?

by bruchrisik on Fri Dec 08, 2006 at 06:37:38 PM EST
I was citing facts which, as far as I know aren't - as long as they are correct - either liberal or conservative. As far as the number of Americans in prison and on parole - it's a shame, yes, and there's a lot that could be said on that subject but I'm not sure how that's relevant to my post here.

by Bruce Wilson on Fri Dec 08, 2006 at 09:10:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Left Behind: Eternal Forces: Installments of Jonathan Hutson's Talk To Action expose series on the "Left Behind: Eternal Forces" video game have been viewed by up to 1/2 million people. See our site section featuring Over 35 original articles covering the controversial "Left Behind: Eternal Forces" video game that has provoked a boycott by a coalition of religious groups and a letter writing campaign urging Walmart to stop selling the game. Media inquiries click here
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