"The California decision certainly reignites what was a smoldering and almost extinguished wedge issue for the religious right; as well as what will undoubtedly be reframed as an issue of `judicial tyranny,' as it was for the theocratic `justice Sunday' rallies a few years ago," Frederick Clarkson, author of "Eternal Hostility" and co-founder of the blog Talk2Action, told me.  

"Assuming that" an initiative banning same-sex marriage "will now be on the November ballot, four arrogant judges may have just put California in play in the presidential race, and it could have certainly changed the U.S. House math," Rod Martin, founder of the conservative group, TheVanguard.org, said in an e-mail. "McCain will do a lot better among Hispanics than most other Republicans could, and the marriage issue can only enhance that.

"But when you throw into the mix lots of Californians, rightly upset at the Court, turning out to vote for something they've already passed before, the left will have to spend a lot of resources in California which otherwise would have gone to winning Florida and Ohio, purely because the Court thinks it's a legislature," Martin added.

McCain's rocky relationship with religious right

Over the years, McCain has had a rocky relationship with the party's religious conservatives. During the 2000 GOP presidential primary campaign, after being pilloried for being soft of the religious right's social agenda, McCain had the chutzpah to call the Rev. Jerry Falwell and the Rev. Pat Robertson "agents of intolerance."

In 2004, McCain further annoyed religious right leaders by opposing a federal constitutional ban on same-sex marriage which he labeled a states' rights issue. Two years later, McCain backed an unsuccessful initiative in his home state banning same-sex marriage.

More recently, McCain tried to mend fences with religious right leaders. He spoke at Falwell's Liberty University, and he sought and received the endorsement of Pastor John Hagee, the heads of a San Antonio, Texas-based mega-church and the founder of Christians United for Israel. Hagee is well-known for anti-Catholic remarks (which he recently apologized for) and a controversial remark linking the devastation of Hurricane Katrina to a scheduled gay rights parade in New Orleans (which has hasn't apologized for).

Hagee has also been in the forefront of hectoring the Bush Administration to take military action against Iran.

However, some religious right leaders - most notably Focus on the Family founder Dr. James Dobson -- have continued to maintain their distance.  Earlier this year, Dobson said that he would not vote for McCain under any circumstances.

McCain is being presented with both an opportunity and as challenge. Ultimately, McCain "has stuck himself between a rock and a hard place," said Clarkson. "His stance that the definition of marriage should be up to the states, in the view of much of the religious right, is an unacceptable defacto decision in favor of gay marriage. They view it as his striking a pose kind of opposed, without actually doing anything to stop it."

Team McCain wasted little time stating its position, issuing a statement criticizing the decision, and appearing to favor a state constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage that is almost certain to appear on California's November ballot.

"John McCain supports the right of the people of California to recognize marriage as a unique institution sanctioning the union between a man and a woman, just as it did in his home state of Arizona," the statement read. "John McCain doesn't believe judges should be making these decisions."    

Will the California decision impact Election 2008?

Opinions differ on whether the California decision will impact Election 2008.

Matt Barber, policy director for cultural issues for Concerned Women for America, sees it differently. He claimed that Republicans had been given "an early Christmas gift."  Brian S. Brown, the executive director of the National Organization for Marriage in California, which opposes same-sex marriage, said that the court's decision has "made same-sex marriage a major issue in the upcoming national election."  

The decision by Chief Justice Ronald George's court "represents an electrifying opportunity for the McCain Campaign and all Republican candidates," Manuel Miranda, chairman, Third Branch Conference, an association of over 150 grasstop conservative and libertarian leaders, told me in an e-mail. "The George court achieved a campaign issue that Senate Republican leaders surrendered in 2006 and presently: a powerful reminder of the importance of judicial nominations."  

Miranda pointed out that the case put "California itself in play if the amendment referendum is on the 2008 ballot, and is a national opportunity for the McCain campaign if they understand it as such.  He does not have to do anything to ingratiate himself [with the religious right], he just has to remind them of the George decision."

McCain "does not have to finesse any position to gain support [from the religious right]," Miranda added, "he simply has to be welcoming and inoffensive to those with whom he may not agree or with who he disagrees on emphasis.  And he is doing that every day."

"The left will tar and feather McCain on this issue anyway, because he was co-chairman of the traditional marriage campaign in Arizona:  [so] he has absolutely nothing to lose," Rod Martin pointed out. But he could definitely prove to a lot of Evangelicals that he's the real deal if he took a strong stand on this and followed through, and honestly, it's a little hard right now to see what else he could that would have the same impact. So if he's smart, he'll do it.  And that would change the turnout picture too, in California and around the country."

"I expect McCain to try to exploit the ruling but not directly," Rob Boston, Assistant Director of Communications for Americans United for Separation of Church and State (AU), told me. "Most of the work will probably be done through surrogates - far-right pastors and Religious Right leaders who will use the decision to demonize gay people and frighten the people in the pews. At the same time, McCain will appear a few times at Religious Right gatherings, such as the Family Research Council's "Values Voter Summit" scheduled for September."

Frederick Clarkson, who lives in Massachusetts, pointed out that while "state and national religious right groups targeted state legislators" since the Goodridge decision, "not a single pro-marriage equality state legislator lost his or her seat, and a number of openly pro-equality legislators were elected.

"This issue terrifies politicians of both parties who are uniformly afraid to say that marriage equality is a good thing, even if they believe that," Clarkson added. "Politicians were similarly afraid to speak out for the equal civil rights for African Americans, even when they were secretly grateful for the courage of the federal courts for upholding the rights of all citizens."

"The big question, is whether playing the same sex-marriage card "will work this time," said AU's Boston. "The economy is in the tank, gas has inched up to four dollars per gallon and people are losing their homes. Many voters, even conservative ones, may feel compelled to pay more attention to these issues rather than obsess over a decision by the California Supreme Court. All I can say is, `Stay tuned.'"

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