The End (of the religious right) Is Not Near
Frederick Clarkson printable version print page     Bookmark and Share
Fri Sep 21, 2007 at 03:23:07 AM EST
There is another big Religious Right conclave in Florida this weekend.  Only this time there will be no polititians. (At least none who are currently running for president.)  But unlike this past week's GOP presidential dog and pony show at the Values Voters Summit, this event may tell us something about the actual state of the religious right political movement. But absent even the lesser stars of the GOP firmament, it will probably receive little media coverage. (If a political conference has no presidential candidates, is it really news?)
The First Annual Family Impact Summit is being held in Brandon, outside of Tampa and according to the St. Petersburg Times:  
Hundreds of conservative Christians are expected to converge here today for a three-day meeting intended to mobilize support for the bedrock issues of the religious right... [the] event will feature a variety of speakers and panelists who represent a Who's Who among the Christian Right. Scheduled presenters include Tony Perkins, head of the Family Research Council; Richard Land, who leads the Southern Baptists' lobbying arm; and former Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris.  Former Republican presidential candidate Gary Bauer will serve as a keynote speaker, and Bobby Schindler, brother of Terri Schiavo, is expected to talk about right-to-life issues."

Although the entire schedule is not posted, the event is clearly oriented to both rally and train grassroots political activists at the beginning of the campaign season. The format is also more like those of the Christian Coalition at its height in the 90s, than an event designed to showcase candidates on television.

The conference is being hosted by a local group and is co-sponsored by, among others, the Family Research Council and the Florida political affiliate of Focus on the Family. (One of 36 state-level groups.  For a detailed discussion of the Focus on the Family state political operations, see my 1999 article, Takin' It to the States: The Rise of Conservative State-Level Think Tanks. (PDF)  Although much has changed since then, the basic analysis I think holds up very well. Indeed, the Focus on the Family political network has stablized rather than declined, and in recent years has led the way on state anti-gay marriage ballot initiatives.)

From this distance, it seems likely that this event is moving in on the territory once occupied by D. James Kennedy's annual Reclaiming America conferences in Ft. Lauderdale -- whose future has been in doubt since the closing of Kennedy's political offices prior to his death.  The religious right is a large and vibrant movement that will generally fill-in vacuums left by the deaths of leaders and other institutional transitions. And we are likely to see many such transitions over the next few years.  But as we frequently note on this site, each and every downturn for the movement, small or large, will be read by many as the death or steep decline of the religious right.  Such marginally informed proclamations always remind me of Mark Twain's famous remark on the occasion of reading his obituary in the newspaper: "Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated." I wonder how many times we will have to read such obits before most thoughtful people realize that the end is not near?

The conference also features a number of other national religious right figures, including Don Wildmon of the Arlington Group and American Family Association; Ken Blackwell of the Family Research Council, and Tom Minnery, the top political hand at Focus on the Family.  Minnery is not as well known as a lot of the others, but here is the bio from the conference web site:  

Tom Minnery is the Senior Vice President of Government and Public Policy at Focus on the Family, a division he has led since 1988. He oversees the production of several magazines, internet sites and radio broadcasts including Citizen Magazine, Family News in Focus, and CitizenLink. The Public Policy Division also oversees a nationwide network of Family Policy Councils, which emphasize and encourage grassroots political and cultural involvement at local and state levels, as well as several seminars, conferences and debates around the country on issues such as homosexuality, abortion, euthanasia, abstinence, physician-assisted suicide, pornography, gambling, and marriage.

In addition to his work at Focus, Tom is also an active Board Member and former Chairman of the Board of the Alliance Defense Fund, a national legal organization dedicated to defending religious freedom and family values.

Formerly the Senior Editor of Christianity Today and a Capitol Hill News Correspondent and manager for the Washington, D.C. bureau of Gannett Newspapers, Mr. Minnery has a Bachelor of Science in Journalism from Ohio University and Master of Arts in Religion from Trinity Evangelical Divinity School. His is the author of Why You Can't Stay Silent: A Biblical Mandate to Shape Our Culture, published by Tyndale.

No matter who the GOP picks as its candidate for president, the movement goes on, and there are lots of races for offices at all levels. The Values Voter Summit this past week seems to have been exceptionally badly staged and more about the egos (ultimately bruised) than any reasonable measure of the state of the religious right.  But if one were to look to one event to get a reading on the state of the religious right, this weekend's event, (with its high powered backing from the Family Research Council/Focus on the Family axis) may be a pretty good measure. This conference is about mobilizing the kinds of activists that make issue and electoral campaigns go -- and that has always been the greatest strength of the religious right.




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I feel like I am repeating myself. But to borrow from Walt Whitman: Do I repeat myself? Alright, then I repeat myself.

by Frederick Clarkson on Fri Sep 21, 2007 at 04:17:09 AM EST

I agree that the religious right is not done yet, and will continue to be a force to be reckoned with for many more years.  Compared with many European countries, like the UK (of which I am an ex-pat), the USA is still a very religious and conservative nation.

People should ignore all the ridiculous rhetoric from the right about how Clinton or Obama are extreme socialists or even communists.  The truth is that many of the polices of the Democratic Party would be considered to be right-of-center in many other parts of the world.  There are very few real lefties to be found in America these days.  I used to be a Liberal Democrat supporter back when I was in the UK -- the moderate party in between Labour on the left and the Tories on the right.  Now I live in the States, I find myself aligned on the left-wing progressive side of the Democratic Party.  I don't believe my politics have changed much over the years, it's just a reflection of how much more conservative America is than Britain.

So, as the article says, a politically active religious right will be around to flex its muscles for a good while yet.  But I do believe they've had to retreat from the ascendancy they achieved during the early part of the Bush presidency.  I suspect that privately they still feel used and abused by Karl Rove and his cynical ploy to engage the right-wing fundamentalists with no real intent to reward them for their efforts beyond the politically safe goal of appointing conservative judges.

Given the nature of current crop of Republican candidate front-runners, it's clear that the Republican establishment and the fundamentalists are wary of each other at the moment, with the result being a considerable loss of influence by the religious right.  James Dobson is sounding decidedly grumpy and depressed about it all, which is a far cry from the enthusiastic pre-2006-election clarion call he issued in support of the Republican party.

They may well be back once they have had time to regroup, but I don't think it's going to get any easier for them in the future.

The demographics of the US population show that the tide is turning.  Perhaps it may take a generation or two, but the long term trends do not look good for the religious right.

First each generation is becoming distinctly less religious than the last.  Thirty years ago, only about 4% of young people considered themselves to be non-believers.  Today it's more like 14% and rising.  Opposition to some form of gay civil unions has dropped like a stone in the past decade, and support for gay marriage is slowly increasing (though not as fast).  Other aspects of the so-called "homosexual agenda" are also losing their power to scare up support.

Opposition to embryonic stem-cell research, which is already on shaky ground, will fizzle as soon as the first life-saving treatment is announce.  Remember how controversial IVF used to be?  Now the religious right have all but abandoned it as a cause to fight against.

With the advent of the broadband internet, it's getting harder for fundamentalist churches and parents to remain unchallenged.  The hypocrisy of the religious leaders is almost impossible to hide from their congregations.  Near unlimited access to pornography and other sexualized messages makes it very tough to sell the abstinence message to teens.  (Not saying ubiquitous access to porn is necessarily a good thing, but it does make the fundamentalist's job that much harder, especially when they are not immune to temptation themselves).

The religious right is slowly losing control of the message and, over a period of decades, will likely continue losing their followers.  Unless there is a major shift in the geopolitical trends, I suspect the US will look a lot more like Western Europe does today on the political and religious front in a twenty or so years.

I'm sure it will be a bumpy ride and the abortion debate will likely keep things lively for a long time to come (I don't see any resolution of that battle, at all).  They will also continue the hysteria over the so-called "Islamic threat" in an effort to keep their troops in line, but that can only work for so long.

Overall I have hope for the future.  I may be wrong, but I suspect it's very unlikely that we'll see the religious right return to the same prominence they enjoyed in the aftermath of the Bush election victories.  Demographics will decide the eventual winner, and I believe the trends are no friends of the religious right.

by tacitus on Fri Sep 21, 2007 at 03:48:24 PM EST



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